Windguru and Windy throw a wall of numbers at you. Most of them you can ignore. Once you know which three matter and why, that wall turns into a quick yes or no. Here’s how an experienced kiter actually reads a forecast row.
The three things that actually matter
Whatever the layout, every kite forecast is really telling you three things:
- Average wind speed (in knots): what kite to rig.
- Gusts: how steady or punchy the session will be.
- Direction: whether it is safe, and how the wind sits relative to the beach.
Temperature, cloud, wave height, the model name, that’s all supporting detail. Get these three right and you’ve made the decision.
Reading the wind speed column
Kite forecasts almost always show wind speed in knots, which is why we use knots throughout this site. As a reminder: 12 kt ≈ 22 km/h ≈ 14 mph, 15 kt ≈ 28 km/h ≈ 17 mph, 20 kt ≈ 37 km/h ≈ 23 mph.
The average number is what picks your kite. A 75 kg rider seeing a steady 16 knots is looking at roughly a 12 m². That’s the whole job of this column, so pair it with the kite size guide and the calculator to turn the number into a rigging plan. And before any of that, what wind speed you need to kitesurf tells you whether the day is even worth driving for.
Reading the gust column
Right next to the average sits the gust figure. New kiters skip it constantly, and it’s the one that matters most for safety and comfort.
The gap between average and gust is the gust factor, and it tells you how the wind will feel. 16 knots average gusting 19 is smooth and friendly. 16 average gusting 28 is the same headline number and a completely different session: punchy, harder to manage, the kind of day you’d size down for to handle the peaks.
The rule of thumb: rig for the gusts, not the average. If the gusts run well above the average, the day is more powered than the headline suggests, so pick a smaller kite. We go deep on the physics and the workflow in gust factor explained.
Reading the direction arrow
Direction shows up as an arrow, usually with a compass bearing, pointing the way the wind blows toward. This is a safety call, not just a comfort one. The directions, relative to your beach:
| Direction | What it means | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Side-onshore | Blows in toward the beach at an angle | Safest and most popular |
| Cross-shore (side-shore) | Blows parallel to the beach | Good, usually smooth |
| Cross-onshore | Angled in toward shore | Good, tends to be smooth |
| Onshore (straight in) | Blows directly at the beach | Rideable but can make getting out hard |
| Offshore | Blows from the land out to sea | Dangerous, avoid |
Side-onshore is the safe default. Lose your board or run into trouble and the wind carries you back toward the beach. Offshore is the one to avoid: it blows you out to open water, and because the air has just crossed land and obstacles it arrives gustier and more turbulent near shore. Cross-offshore directions share that turbulence. The broad pattern: onshore and cross-onshore wind is smoother, cross-offshore is gustier. Smooth wind comes from a long clean fetch over open water, not from a trip over rooftops and trees.
Reading the model (and why two apps disagree)
Most forecast tables note which weather model the numbers come from. It matters, because different models can show different wind for the same spot and time. When two apps disagree, you’re usually watching two models disagree.
The takeaway: when the models agree, trust the forecast; when they diverge, expect volatility and recheck closer to the day. If you want to understand the main players (GFS, ECMWF and ICON) and which to weight, read weather models for kiters. Cross-checking a couple of sources is standard practice, and it’s why most kiters keep more than one app handy; see best wind apps for kitesurfing.
How far ahead can you trust it?
Forecasts are fine for rough planning several days out and get much firmer as the session approaches. Use the far-out forecast to spot a likely window, then let it settle:
- Several days out: good for spotting a possible session, treat as a maybe.
- Day before: the numbers settle and you can start planning kite and timing.
- Morning of: the real decision, plus a glance at a live wind station near the spot if one exists.
Never drive on a single five-day-out reading. Recheck on the day, every time.
A quick worked read
Saturday afternoon shows 17 knots average, 21 gusting, side-onshore, and two models broadly agree. Read it like this: the average says a 12 m² for a 75 kg rider; the modest gust spread says it’ll feel smooth, so no need to size down hard; side-onshore means it’s safe; and model agreement means the forecast is trustworthy. Green light. Recheck Saturday morning, glance at a live station, and go.
Now flip one detail: same 17 knots average but 30 gusting, cross-offshore, models disagreeing. Same headline wind, completely different call. Punchy gusts, a turbulent offshore-leaning direction, low confidence. That’s a watch-and-probably-skip day.
Where KiteMate fits
Reading the average, the gusts and the direction together, then judging the gust quality and planning the session, is exactly the workflow the KiteMate app is being built around: forecast plus gust-quality scoring plus session planning in one place, so you spend less time cross-referencing columns. It’s coming soon. For now, the habits in this guide will serve you on any forecast site.
Bottom line
Read three things and you’ve read the forecast: average wind for your kite size, gusts for how rough it’ll be, and direction for safety. Side-onshore is safe, offshore is not. Trust the forecast more when models agree, and always recheck on the morning. Do that consistently and you’ll stop guessing and start showing up on the right days with the right kite.